Biden vs Trump: yuan route


The Chinese language renminbi has been a scorching guess for buyers taking a place on the US election. A historic rally within the foreign money has boosted its worth in opposition to the US greenback by greater than 7 per cent from Could lows. A swift unwind is now on the playing cards.

A Joe Biden presidency was priced in. The thesis is that if elected, Mr Biden could be a lot much less hawkish on commerce relations with China, lowering tariff pressures on exports.

These have been recovering anyway, fuelling a big commerce surplus that has additionally boosted the foreign money. Overseas buyers have pushed the rally. There was a surge in buying and selling volumes within the offshore renminbi market. Offshore funds have then poured into China’s fairness markets, serving to push their worth to a report of greater than $10tn this 12 months.

With the election consequence hanging in the balance, renminbi bulls may discover themselves as confounded as “blue wave”-backing pollsters already are. The foreign money spiked then slumped, based on Refinitiv knowledge, with the publication of voting outcomes that confirmed a surge in help for Donald Trump.

Worsening commerce hostilities would damage US firms in addition to Chinese language counterparts. The latter group would, nonetheless, obtain some compensation through an unwind within the foreign money commerce. This is able to enhance the margins of Chinese language firms similar to Xiaomi and Lenovo by making their merchandise extra aggressive.

A limiting issue is the Chinese language central financial institution’s better leeway on setting trade charges. Final 12 months, a weak yuan would have meant hefty capital outflows from nervous overseas buyers. The pandemic has turned the tables. China’s robust financial restoration, low cost authorities bonds and a rising tech trade have made the foreign money much less liable to sentiment-driven swings.

A secure outlook for Chinese language equities, which ought to keep largely unaffected by US election outcomes, helps too. The outbreak of the commerce struggle in 2018 was marked by a 30 per cent drop within the nation’s benchmark CSI 300 index. China has now undergone two years of political fallout with the US. Its markets have emerged stronger.

In case you are a subscriber and wish to obtain alerts when Lex articles are revealed, simply click on the button “Add to myFT”, which seems on the high of this web page above the headline.